AGP Executive Report

Power Upgrade in Lagos: TCN commissioned upgraded Ijora and Apapa substations, adding 208MW to the national grid—Ijora up to 230MVA and Apapa Road to 180MVA—aimed at easing bottlenecks around Apapa, Tin Can Island Port and major industrial corridors. Housing Finance Push: FG, through FMBN’s National Housing Fund (NHF) Mortgage Loan, opened a pathway for eligible Nigerians to access up to N50m at ≤6% interest via accredited Primary Mortgage Banks, with repayment up to 30 years. Inflation vs Cost of Living: Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 15.43% in July, but economists point to persistent food-price pressure, with food inflation rising to 20.31%, keeping household costs high. Security and Trade Controls: NDLEA vowed to crush drug cartels as it destroyed illicit drugs in Lagos; Nigeria Customs named importers behind 399 pump-action rifles seized at Tin-Can Island. Ports and Logistics Friction: Truckers are reportedly shunning NPA truck parks at Onne Port, worsening cargo evacuation delays. Digital Inclusion Plan: FG says it will install 3,700 telecom towers to connect rural and riverine communities by mid-2027. Markets/Business: BOI’s N250bn bond closed oversubscribed; HBM Nigeria reported H1’26 profit up 57% to N208bn. ECOWAS Startup Awards: ECOWAS set Sept. 28 for a $65,000 (N91m) startup competition for 60 firms across fintech, agri-tech, ed-tech, cleantech and more.

Inflation Watch: Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 15.43% in July, down from 15.91% in June, but food inflation jumped to 20.31% as prices of staples like rice, yam, plantain, pepper and tomatoes accelerated. CBN Cash Policy: The CBN revised ATM rules, keeping withdrawals from your own bank free while charging ₦100 per ₦20,000 for using other banks’ ATMs, with off-site operators allowed extra surcharges. Security & Crime: The NSA, Nuhu Ribadu, launched a 2027–2031 national strategy to tackle organised crime, linking threats like cybercrime, drug trafficking and corruption. Anti-Corruption in Health: FG and ICPC set up a joint task team to plug weaknesses and prevent diversion of health funds. Business & Markets: NGX opened the week lower as decliners outpaced gainers, with market value slipping slightly and the All-Share Index falling. Trade & Governance: ECOWAS reviewed tobacco excise rules in Conakry amid new nicotine products and illicit trade concerns. Tech & Inclusion: Girls Tech Boot Camp is training 300 secondary school girls nationwide in AI, data science and Python to close the gender tech gap. Public Spending Scrutiny: MonITNG questioned a ₦3bn Abuja solar streetlight budget, noting the Nigerian Film Corporation is listed as implementing agency despite its film-industry mandate. Sports & Economy: NFF inaugurated a fact-finding committee to diagnose Nigeria’s national teams’ poor outings, including the Super Falcons’ failure to qualify for the 2027 Women’s World Cup. Aviation Cost Pressure: Air Peace said it lost about $42m in revenue after repeated ground-handling damage that keeps aircraft out of service.

Capital Markets: Bank of Industry (BOI) closed its maiden N250bn Series 1 fixed-rate bond, oversubscribed within five working days, with strong institutional demand from PFAs, banks, DFIs and corporates, plus anchor support from NSIA and IFC. Corporate Finance: Union Bank of Nigeria obtained PCI DSS v4.0.1 certification (effective Aug 11), strengthening payment card data security across its card issuance, ATM/POS acquiring and payment processing operations. Energy & Industry: NLNG and NCDMB broke ground for the NLNG Research and Innovation Centre for Computer and Electrical Engineering at Rivers State University to boost indigenous research, training and tech solutions for Nigeria’s energy and industrial sectors. Extractives & Safety: Solid Minerals Minister Dele Alake warned illegal miners against working abandoned pits without licences after a Kassa tin mine pit collapse killed seven, urging repurposing of “pits of death” into economic assets. FX & Markets: Naira held around N1,357.61/$ at the official market and about N1,420/$ in parallel trade, while NGX stayed bearish with sectors turning red and market cap slipping. Policy & Regulation: Nigeria’s EITI validation assessors praised improved systematic disclosures by NEITI, while SEC moves to tighten capital market compliance on geopolitical risk. Crypto Tax Debate: New NRS virtual asset tax rules (including 1.5% stamp duty on transfers) are drawing pushback from operators who warn of capital flight to unregulated foreign platforms.

Osun Election Fallout: Osun voters re-elected Ademola Adeleke and sparked fresh 2027 talk, with Isaac Fayose saying the result proves Tinubu can be defeated; Adeleke’s camp denied any “political deal” after Festus Keyamo’s “agreement is agreement” comment. Market Watch: NGX postponed its revised equities pricing rules meant to start Monday, while the equities market closed the week bearish, losing N1.889tn as 59 stocks declined. FX & Rates: FMDQ data showed FX forwards turnover jumped 263.56% to $90.89m even as spot turnover collapsed, and the naira cooled to about N1,360/$ at the official market. Industrial & Trade Push: NSDC unveiled a $1bn plan to cut sugar import dependence; lawmakers backed China’s zero-tariff expansion as a boost for African industrialisation; FG also reiterated diaspora and security partnerships. Security & Economy: NDLEA arrested a Lagos businessman with 1.55kg cocaine and seized large codeine syrup stock; Nigerian Navy destroyed illegal refining sites in Rivers. Governance & Business Climate: FCT Minister Nyesom Wike signed 26,272 C-of-O to improve access to land collateral for businesses. Ports Regulation: Maritime expert warns NPERA’s new powers must be clearly separated from NPA to avoid overlapping mandates.

Maritime Security: India and Nigeria are deepening maritime security cooperation, with a Nigerian Navy delegation set for a third Naval Sub Group Meeting in India to review naval ties and expand intelligence and counter-terrorism work in the Gulf of Guinea. Insecurity Policy: The Office of the National Security Adviser is driving a National Peace Framework focused on non-kinetic approaches, arguing force alone can’t deliver lasting peace amid terrorism, banditry, kidnapping and digital threats. Industrial Gas Push: A gas engineer urges Nigeria to use LNG governance to avoid the “crude oil trap,” calling for industrial clusters around gas projects instead of stand-alone exports. Telecom Connectivity: Airtel and SpaceX’s Starlink launched Africa’s first satellite-to-phone service in the DRC, enabling compatible phones to connect directly to satellites for limited services like SMS and light data. Finance & Markets: Nigeria’s overnight financing market hit a new monthly record as July trading volume rose to N104.9tn, while the SEC ordered capital market operators to cut ties with Iran and North Korea. Energy Risk: Fresh attacks on UAE-linked oil vessels through the Strait of Hormuz are raising fuel-supply risks for import-dependent African economies. Industrial Lending: BOI says 80% of large-enterprise lending will target priority sectors like power, manufacturing, agribusiness and digital infrastructure. Crypto Compliance: Bitget moves to enforce sanctions on 16 crypto platforms while expanding stock-linked tokens. Osun Election: INEC is expected to declare the Osun governorship winner today as results collation continues amid reported disruptions. Education Access: UBEC says no child’s circumstances should block access to quality education, commissioning a rehabilitated alternative high school for girls in Lagos.

CBN Policy Shift: The central bank has reopened its Open Market Operations (OMO) market to domestic investors after a 2019 restriction, allowing eligible players to participate via Deposit Money Banks in both primary and secondary OMO markets, while keeping full control of issuance. Ports Regulation: President Tinubu’s assent to the Nigerian Ports Economic Regulatory Agency (NPERA) Bill is set to end “regulatory hesitation” by giving a statutory regulator stronger powers over port charges and enforcement. Capital Markets Security: The SEC ordered capital market operators to cut ties and restrict dealings linked to North Korea and Iran, including terminating correspondent banking relationships for DPRK-linked institutions. Trade & Finance: BRICS is discussing linking instant payments and central bank digital currencies to cut cross-border payment costs, while Nigeria’s equities market continues to react to profit-taking and FX sentiment. Health & Tech: Nigeria targets local production and technology transfer for radiotherapy and imaging equipment by 2030, as it deepens oncology partnerships with China. Sports & Business: Tecno and PalmPay are pursuing Hong Kong listings, and Ibom Air is set to take delivery of its third Airbus A220-300 to boost connectivity and tourism.

Capital Markets: NGX investors lost about N3.8tn across four sessions as selling pressure stretched after Tinubu’s visit, with market cap slipping and activity weakening. Anti-Corruption & Governance: ICPC boss Musa Aliyu said integrity in public administration is now central to economic stability, while tracking of massive public projects and recovered funds underscores the push to curb graft. Legal Compliance: SAN Michael Numa warned lawyers that weak KYC on client funding could trigger fee forfeiture, stressing due diligence beyond paperwork. Corporate & Security Regulation: SEC ordered capital market operators to freeze assets linked to suspected terrorism financiers, while also admitting blockchain into its ARIP for regulated testing. Energy & Industry: Dangote Refinery’s CEO says the October IPO is aimed at Nigerians’ participation and foreign listing is at least three years away. Diaspora & Investment: Tinubu urged Nigerians abroad to move beyond remittances and property into productive sectors. Trade & Customs: Nigeria Customs in Ogun seized smuggled goods worth N3.57bn, including rice and PMS. Elections & Youth: FG urged youths to reclaim confidence and actively participate in the 2027 electoral process.

Naira & FX: The naira strengthened to N1,358.25/$ at the NFEM, up 0.42% week-on-week as external reserves climbed above $52bn, easing pressure on importers. Capital Markets: The NGX All-Share Index fell for a second straight session, down 0.16% and wiping about N257bn in market value as investors took profit in heavyweight names. Insurance Recap: Universal Insurance secured a N7.128bn private placement to meet NAICOM recapitalisation rules, with FPNG set to hold 50.1%. Anti-terror Finance: The SEC ordered capital market operators to freeze assets of six individuals and three entities linked to terrorism financing. Energy & Trade: Tinubu renewed vows to revive moribund refineries; meanwhile, Nigeria-China aquatic exports got a push for zero-tariff access as officials urge faster implementation to turn $18bn H1 trade into export earnings. SMEDAN & Skills: SMEDAN launched the BRYNE programme to support 100,000+ young entrepreneurs annually, while Aptech celebrated 130+ graduates as demand for digital skills rises. Diaspora Investment: Tinubu urged Nigerians abroad to shift from remittances to investments through NIDEC in Toronto. Entertainment Business: Fresh royalty and catalogue disputes hit Dapper Music as multiple artistes publicly trade allegations.

CBN Banking Charges: The CBN has issued a fresh rulebook on bank charges, affecting ATM/debit cards, cash transfers and other customer fees, with banks required to disclose charges upfront and allow customers to challenge improper fees. FX & Money Markets: The naira strengthened at the official market after the CBN eased FX and securities restrictions and opened access to its discount window, while new money-market rules expand how banks access central bank funding and investment options. Oil & Refineries: Tinubu told NUPENG Nigeria’s state refineries will return to work after restructuring, but without a timeline; NNPC also welcomed deep offshore tax incentives meant to unlock over $50bn in investment and push output toward 3m bpd by 2030. Energy & Trade: NTDA is pushing coastal tourism and waterways development via private-sector partnerships, while Nigeria-China aquatic trade hit $18bn in H1 2026 after a new zero-tariff protocol. Governance & Audits: NEITI’s audit sparked a Senate row as the Finance Ministry accused NNPC of withholding records over a $3bn pre-export loan and $722.6m NLNG dividends/interest. Capital Markets & Security: SEC ordered fresh freezes of funds tied to newly designated alleged terrorism financiers, and NGX stocks extended sell-offs with major market-cap losses. Insurance Sector: NAICOM confirmed seven more insurers as compliant with NIIRA 2025 minimum capital, bringing total compliant firms to 48 plus two reinsurers.

Unemployment & Jobs: South Africa’s official unemployment rate climbed to 33.6% in Q2 2026, reigniting debate over who is really taking jobs as hostility toward foreign nationals grows. Diplomacy & Religion: Nigeria’s ambassador-designate to South Africa, Femi Fani-Kayode, urged the Sultan of Sokoto and Tinubu to caution Sheikh Jingir over remarks seen as inflaming Christian-Muslim tensions. Politics Ahead of Osun Poll: Peter Obi warned politicians and security agencies against intimidation and manipulation ahead of Saturday’s Osun governorship election, while APC figures trade sharp warnings with the state’s opposition. Capital Markets & Regulation: The SEC set a 5pm deadline for T+1 settlement, as Nigeria’s FX market reportedly cooled to about N1,360/$ and NGX continued to feel sell-offs. Insurance Sector: NAICOM confirmed seven more insurers met NIIRA 2025 capital requirements, bringing compliant firms to 50. Tech & Telecoms: Airtel accelerated 5G rollout, adding 1,000+ new sites in a year and pushing deeper rural coverage. Health & Safety: UNICEF warned cholera outbreaks are spreading across six African countries, with Nigeria among the hardest hit. Business & Energy Skills: NLNG and NCDMB broke ground for a research and innovation centre at Rivers State University to boost computer and electrical engineering capacity.

Fiscal Transparency: Nigeria again failed the U.S. minimum fiscal transparency test in the 2026 Fiscal Transparency Report, with Washington citing weak budget reporting, audit independence, procurement disclosure and limited detail on revenues and spending. CBN Money Market Overhaul: The CBN eased key bank rules by removing old restrictions around the discount window and FX/government securities participation, restarted tenored repo operations (4–90 days), and opened Open Market Operations participation to individuals and corporates via banks. Capital Markets Rules: The SEC set a 5:00pm T+1 settlement deadline for equities and commodities through CSCS, warning brokers must be funded to avoid default handling. Data Protection Crackdown: NDPC launched a forensic probe into alleged misuse of UNILAG students’ data to open bank accounts involving UNILAG, Lotus Bank and Hackerbella Ltd. Security & Trade: Nigeria Customs seized 399 assembled Jojef pump-action rifles and parts at Tin-Can Island Port, citing intelligence-led enforcement. Energy & Climate: West Africa pushed for a $3bn regional settlement facility and harmonised rules to unlock a $3tn energy market, while ECOWAS advanced plans for a regional carbon market to close a $294bn climate-finance gap. Flood Risk: Northern senators demanded a permanent Shiroro flood management plan, including dam operations review, forecasting and resettlement. Agriculture Push: FG unveiled a mechanisation policy targeting food sovereignty, including plans for large-scale tractor assembly and a shift toward private-sector mechanisation services.

Aviation Dispute: Air Peace says it lost over ₦2bn after aviation unions’ violent picketing, accusing them of defying a Federal High Court order and asking FG/NCAA to investigate why it was singled out. Data Privacy Crackdown: NDPC has launched a forensic probe into UNILAG, Lotus Bank and Hackerbella over alleged misuse of students’ data to open unauthorized accounts. Capital Markets: NGX extended losses as profit-taking pushed the All-Share Index down 1.12%, with heavyweights like BUA Foods and Unilever leading decliners; meanwhile Lasaco Assurance’s rights-issue shares were listed on NGX. Policy for Growth: Education Minister Maruf Alausa says Nigeria’s 41 UniPods must become commercial hubs that create jobs and investment, not just research centres. Oil & Gas Watch: Nigeria sustained crude output above 1.5mbpd for a third month in July, despite a monthly dip, as government pushes reforms to attract deep offshore investment. Energy/Finance: CBN opened a second regulatory sandbox cohort for digital finance and virtual assets, while BOI’s ₦250bn bond targets longer-term funding for productive sectors. Fraud Alert: NUPRC warns of fake, including AI-generated, employment letters demanding money from job seekers. Trade/Industry: Dangote Cement trained and distributed farm inputs to 60 farmers in Edo as part of host-community support.

Regional Energy Market: West African regulators, led by Nigeria’s NMDPRA, are pushing a unified refined fuel pricing and trading hub, arguing that benchmarks need more than new refineries—data, liquidity, storage, logistics and financing must come together. Oil & Gas Investment: President Tinubu signed a Deep Offshore Oil and Gas incentives order to unlock up to $50bn, with tax remissions and clearer rules for projects like Bonga South West. Domestic Crude Supply: NUPRC says domestic crude delivery hit 97.4% in Q2, with Dangote refinery taking the lion’s share (52.6m barrels accepted). Labour & Refineries: TUC backs private equity in refineries but rejects outright sale, proposing a 49% government/51% private structure. Digital Finance & Crypto: CBN opens a sandbox for virtual assets and data-driven finance, while Nigeria’s stablecoin infrastructure push grows via fintech platforms. SMEs & Banking: CIBN urges banks and Lagos to deepen SME funding through financial inclusion and a digital learning/innovation hub. EVs & Power Constraints: Nigeria approved tax waivers for nearly 4,000 EVs in H1, but Reuters flags chronic electricity supply as the biggest drag on adoption. Aviation Disruption: Aviation unions picketed Air Peace, triggering flight cancellations and losses, raising pressure on Nigeria’s aviation labour and regulatory environment. Agriculture & Food Security: Japan donates $3.5m for rice seed production, targeting higher yields through better breeder and foundation seeds. Tech & Connectivity: NCC reports 5,000 fibre optic breaches in six months, as regulators call for better coordination to prevent cable cuts during road works.

Aviation Security: NCAA orders arrest and prosecution of an Air Peace staff driver accused of blocking the Lagos runway during union picketing, as unions allege airline non-remittance of ticket charges. Financial Regulation: CBN opens applications for the second Regulatory Sandbox cohort (Aug 12–31), adding separate tracks for virtual assets and data-enabled financial services. Customs & Trade: Senate backs Nigeria Customs reforms as NCS reports major interceptions at borders (explosives from Ghana, plus smuggled goods worth billions) and targets higher revenue through tech-led enforcement. Digital Economy: FG moves to reduce dependence on foreign cloud services via a cloud localisation framework, while ipNX urges innovation-friendly AI rules. Markets: NGX retreats after Monday’s rally, with market cap down about ₦1.17tn to ₦159.255tn. Telecoms Earnings: MTN flags profit pressure from SA prepaid softness and Iran-related writedowns, though Nigeria and other units support results. Energy & Fuel: Dangote’s refinery momentum feeds West Africa fuel hub plans, while petrol depot prices rise again as Brent nears $90. Politics & Economy: Atiku questions ₦144.86bn safe schools funding amid school closures over insecurity; Sowore renews claims government still subsidises petrol and the naira. Food Systems: Stakeholders demand standardisation to boost Nigeria’s food safety and export competitiveness.

Consumer Watch: CBN’s July 2026 Household Expectations Survey shows consumer confidence improving (index -9.0 from -14.6) but Nigerians still shun big-ticket spending like houses, cars and durables. Justice Access: Lawyers warn rising litigation costs are pricing many people out of election-related disputes, raising concerns over fair access to courts. Power & Regulation: NERC dissolves Kaduna DisCo board over a N456.5bn debt crisis, appointing an interim team and pushing a process to find a replacement investor. Oil Refining Supply: NUPRC reports 53.7m barrels of crude/condensate supplied to local refiners in Q2 (97.4% performance), with Dangote taking most of the volume. Trade & Revenue: Nigeria Customs targets N11trn for 2026, citing tech-led reforms and reduced officer discretion; it says it generated N4.03trn in H1. FX & Cost of Living: Parallel market rates show the dollar at about ₦1430 sell/₦1415 buy, as households continue to feel election-era pressure. Social Protection: FG says it’s strengthening social protection to cushion poverty and economic shocks, with focus on reducing unpaid care burdens. Youth & Skills: Youth leaders get renewed push on IT and employable skills as NDLEA and youth development officials urge drug rejection and career building.

Financial Sector Oversight: The Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions urged tighter collaboration among regulators to stabilise Nigeria’s financial architecture and support sustainable growth. Corporate Earnings Watch: Caverton Offshore Support Group reported an N8.7bn half-year loss as revenue fell and operating profit dropped, pointing to marine operations as a recovery driver. Procurement & Governance: Atiku Abubakar challenged Tinubu to explain alleged $20bn Chagoury-linked projects raised by The Economist, questioning bidding, tax concessions and beneficial ownership. Energy Sector Shake-up: NERC dissolved the Kaduna DisCo board over N456.5bn market debt, poor remittances and high losses, appointing interim administrators and ordering a stabilisation plan. Oil Supply Compliance: NUPRC said domestic crude supply obligation hit 97.4% compliance in Q2, with producers delivering 53.7m barrels to local refineries. Trade & Borders: NOPPMAN urged ECOWAS intervention over Ghana’s continued restriction of Nigerian onion trucks, saying losses are mounting. Public Finance: CBN returns to the primary market with a N700bn NTB auction on Aug 12 after cancelling the Aug 5 sale. Business & Standards: Lai Mohammed and industry leaders backed standardisation at the Nigeria Food Summit to boost culinary tourism and global competitiveness. Politics & 2027: Oyo APC stakeholders backed Sarafadeen Alli for victory on grassroots strength, while Plateau’s PIGD told Kefiano to present a full development agenda beyond a one-term pledge. Travel & Migration: South Africa’s consul-general said visa applications from Nigerians have almost doubled and urged travellers to ignore xenophobia claims and follow visa rules.