AGP Executive Report

Dangote Refinery IPO Watch: Nigeria’s SEC has cleared Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s about $1.6bn IPO, with the offer pegged at 4.1bn shares at ₦525—an early test of African capital-market appetite. Energy & Fuel Pricing: Reports say Dangote petrol is now cheaper than imported fuel by roughly ₦45–₦46 per litre, even as depot rates hold steady, intensifying pressure on import-parity pricing. Capital Markets: Nigeria’s SEC says T+1 settlement is running smoothly, while NGX closed the week up about N3.7tn as investors rotated into frontier-eligible names. FX & Liquidity: Official FX turnover fell 21% week-on-week to $2.41bn as market activity slowed, with the naira also showing mixed movement. Consumer & Regulation: FCCPC has opened a probe into Uber’s exit, focusing on unfulfilled services; meanwhile, SEC and customs updates point to tighter market and trade oversight. Healthcare Cashless Worry: FCT public hospital patients allege cash-only payments and unclear receipts, raising accountability concerns. Governance & Delivery: FCT’s National Library project faces sanctions risk as the education minister orders contractors to hit timelines. Maritime Finance: FG pushes to fast-track the long-delayed Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund disbursement to shipowners.

Oil & Security: An NGO says at least 37 people died in Rivers State after suspected fuel thieves inhaled fumes during pipeline tapping, with many others missing. Pharma Localisation: NAFDAC says its “5+5” policy and Ceiling List are boosting local drug production, with local firms rising and import dependence falling. Trade & Growth: Nigeria’s foreign policy push is being framed as a business tool, with officials urging firms to use ECOWAS/ETLS and AfCFTA to expand markets. Cost of Living Politics: Atiku accuses Tinubu of deepening hardship after subsidy removal, while Tinubu’s camp points to price stability claims. Cash Transfer Probe: SERAP demands investigation of alleged N78.8bn unaccounted cash transfer funds, citing Auditor-General findings; Falana also calls for EFCC action. Drug War: NDLEA arrests a convicted cocaine trafficker posing as a herbal tea seller and warns of Mexican-linked meth labs in Ogun/Oyo forests. Consumer Watchdog: FCCPC begins probing Uber’s Nigeria exit over unfulfilled customer services. Energy Markets: OPEC+ maintains output for October as Nigeria seeks higher production; WAEP targets 1.6bn barrels and gas monetisation within 24 months. Markets: NGX All-Share Index rises 2.36% to ND106.3trn as investors gain.

Cash Transfer Accountability: Nigeria’s Auditor-General says government can’t prove ₦33.75bn reached 3.29m households under the 2023 cash transfer, citing missing Remita payment statements and alleged obstruction by NCTO staff. Anti-graft Pressure: A former lawmaker has given the EFCC a 14-day ultimatum to reopen and prosecute Atiku over alleged financial crimes, while the EFCC pushes a new “freeze suspicious transfers” approach to stop money moving before investigators act. Energy & Trade: Nigeria formally joins the IEA as an Association country, deepening global energy cooperation, and gets a two-year AGOA extension that reopens duty-free US export opportunities for Nigerian firms. Markets & FX: The naira strengthened slightly to about ₦1,321/$ at the official market as reserves hit $54bn, while equities and OTC activity showed gains. Security & Governance: INEC and police warn politicians against threats and intimidation ahead of 2027. Public Health & Safety: Akwa Ibom bans ambulances for corpse transport, warning of infection risks. Food Security: NPBA urges more investment in agricultural research and plant breeding to tackle food insecurity. Infrastructure & Real Estate: Port modernization in the South-South is already driving a land and logistics property boom.

Security & Politics: APM dares President Tinubu and Defence Minister Christopher Musa to drive on Nigerian roads without armed escorts, citing the 2026 Global Terrorism Index and alleged ransom payments. Transport & Regulation: FAAN denies it drove Uber’s exit from Nigeria, saying airport rules were about passenger safety, accountability and curbing touting, as Uber shuts down ride-hailing operations from Sept 2. Energy & Cost of Living: Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde blames border failures for fuel hikes and says Nigerians shouldn’t pay for government’s inability to secure borders, while Olawepo-Hashim calls Tinubu’s fuel pricing policy “insanity,” arguing petrol could sell around N605/litre. Elections & Democracy: South-East youth groups protest alleged N150m billboard fees for 2027 campaigns, warning democracy could become a preserve of the wealthy. Social Protection & Accountability: Nigeria draws another $208.29m from the World Bank’s National Social Safety Net Programme-Scale Up, while Atiku vows to probe audit concerns over N33.75bn cash transfer funds. Markets & Business: SEC approves Dangote refinery IPO, with order book set to open Sept 14; Nigeria’s external reserves hit $54.08bn; FairMoney surpasses 30m registered users; SUNU Assurances lists new shares worth N9.34bn post-recapitalisation. Trade & Growth: FG sensitises businesses on ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme (ETLS) and AfCFTA opportunities. Health & Workforce: OSN warns “japa” of ophthalmologists could cost Nigeria about $150,000 annually per specialist, as it pushes for better retention and rural deployment.

Capital Markets: SEC has cleared Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s IPO, with plans to sell 4.1bn shares at N525 each, potentially raising about N2.15tn and valuing the refinery around $47bn—an investor appetite test for Africa’s biggest share sale. FX & Macroeconomy: The naira strengthened on the NFEM to about N1,322.50/$ as the week ended, even as official FX turnover fell sharply to $2.14bn. Business Climate: NESG says Nigeria’s business performance index rose to 112.7 in August, the highest since February 2026, with manufacturing leading while investment stayed in contraction. Transport & Mobility: Uber shut down Nigeria after 12 years, while FAAN insists the exit is Uber’s business choice and links airport frictions to passenger experience and airport pickup rules. Energy & Aviation: Nigeria added 322,800 scheduled airline seats in September (1.19m total), and Delta targets 120MW power boost via gas-linked private partnership. Social & Policy: First Lady Tinubu launched the South-South National Community Food Bank programme in Calabar to tackle child malnutrition. Governance & Trade: Nigeria urged the AU to cut reliance on external funding for peace and conflict prevention. Security: NSCDC rescued 15 trafficked children and recovered stolen rifles, dismantling a telecom vandalism syndicate.

Dangote IPO Watch: Nigeria’s SEC has approved Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s IPO at ₦525 per share, offering 4.1 billion shares and targeting about ₦2.15tn ($1.55bn), with the offer expected to open around Sept. 14 as the refinery seeks to more than double capacity. FX & Reserves: The naira strengthened to about ₦1,302/$ at the official market and external reserves crossed $54bn for the first time since 2008, boosting confidence in liquidity. Fuel Subsidy Politics: Opposition and labour voices renewed the subsidy argument, with Atiku accusing Tinubu’s hardship of pushing youths to sell kidneys, while PENGASSAN says the debate is over and Nigerians must now see benefits. Housing & Jobs: FG opened applications for ₦50m equity-free grants for 50 student ventures, while it also discussed large-scale housing partnerships with a Chinese firm to tackle Nigeria’s housing deficit. Local Business & Mobility: PromiseLand will launch ProTaxi, a homegrown e-hailing platform, on Oct. 1. Security & Health: NARD demanded prosecution after an alleged assault on a doctor in Abuja, and reports said 37 died from toxic fumes during alleged petrol theft in Rivers.

NGX Market Update: Nigeria’s stock market rebounded on Thursday, gaining N239bn as Seplat Energy surged 10% and other counters lifted sentiment; the All-Share Index rose 0.15% to 246,388.22 and market cap hit N159.153tn, though breadth stayed negative. FX Watch: The naira strengthened in the official market, closing at N1,315.67/$1 on Friday, while parallel rates held around N1,375/$1, supported by higher reserves and improved liquidity. Energy & Investment: Nigeria and the International Energy Agency signed an energy data and policy Joint Work Programme as the country begins IEA partnership, with IEA chief Fatih Birol saying Nigeria could double energy investment within five years. Digital Transformation: NITDA and NACCIMA signed an MoU to accelerate business digital transformation ahead of wider adoption of digital tools across enterprises. Agribusiness Trade: Nigeria resumed onion exports to Ghana after diplomatic intervention, highlighting ongoing non-tariff barriers in intra-ECOWAS trade. Petrol Pressure: Depot PMS prices are edging above N1,300/litre, raising fears of another fuel shock for households and transporters. Ride-hailing Shock: Uber’s exit continues to ripple through drivers and the market, while inDrive says it will keep investing and operating in multiple Nigerian cities.

FTSE Russell Index Move: FTSE Russell says 10 Nigerian firms—GTCO, Zenith Bank, Dangote Cement, First HoldCo, MTN Nigeria, Nestlé Nigeria, Nigerian Breweries, Presco, Stanbic IBTC and Aradel—are newly eligible for its Frontier Index Series ahead of Nigeria’s frontier reclassification effective Sept 21. Power & Education: Nigeria’s Education Minister Alausa says university campuses will be taken off the national grid via dedicated solar mini-grids to stabilise learning and research. Energy Policy Push: Nigeria and the IEA sign a Joint Work Programme on energy policy, investment and security as Nigeria’s IEA association status is framed as a reform win. Ride-hailing Shock: Uber exits Nigeria after 12 years, intensifying pressure on e-hailing economics as competition rises; Bolt vows to stay. Oil Theft Deaths: An NGO reports at least 37 deaths in Rivers State after people inhaled fumes during pipeline fuel theft. Public Finance/Markets: NGX All-Share Index edges up 0.15% to close at 246,388.22 points, with market cap rising by about N238bn. Security & Governance: Nigeria Police disburses N2.317bn insurance and welfare benefits to 2,971 beneficiaries; a court orders a detained alleged “fake” PFIPC DG to access lawyers.

Uber Exit Shock: Ride-hailing giant Uber has shut down operations in Nigeria effective Sept. 2, 2026, ending a 12-year run and leaving riders and drivers scrambling as the app went offline mid-ride in some reports; Uber says its help centre stays open till Sept. 23 for account issues, while AUATON and drivers’ groups accuse it of poor notice and unfair treatment. Regulation Push: The SEC has proposed new rules for online forex trading and CFDs, with capital thresholds up to N5bn and licensing categories for brokers and platforms, as Nigeria tightens oversight of retail FX. FX & Markets: The naira strengthened to about N1,326.69/$1 at the official market, but NGX slipped 0.03% as large caps dragged, with market value down N41bn. Fintech Trust: OPay says it has taken legal action over a viral rumour that it was shutting down, insisting it remains fully operational. Transport Integration: NRC and Abia State signed an MoU to build an access road across the railway corridor in Umuahia, aiming to improve urban mobility. Local Jobs: Kaduna begins disbursing N810m to 4,050 skilled artisans with N200,000 each to start or expand businesses. Telecom Growth: MTN leads Nigeria’s fibre broadband market with 55.2% of FTTX subscriptions in Q2 2026.

Tax Reform Impact: Kaduna Governor Uba Sani says Nigeria’s tax reforms have boosted revenue mobilisation, with national revenue hitting N21.6tn in H1 2026 (49% up year-on-year), and commends the shift from Joint Tax Board to Joint Revenue Board. Digital Finance Regulation: SEC proposes new rules for online forex trading and CFDs, including up to N5bn minimum capital for operators and a 30% Nigerian ownership requirement for brokers. Drug Fight, Asset Focus: NDLEA boss Marwa orders investigators to intensify financial investigations, asset tracing and recovery, saying arrests alone won’t dismantle drug cartels. Ride-hailing Shock: Uber will wind down operations in Nigeria from Sept 2, apologising to users and citing a global business review; the exit is set to reshape competition in the e-hailing market. Education Loan Pressure: NANS Zone C warns universities against withholding NELFUND refunds and penalties, demanding immediate refunds for affected students. Trade Facilitation: FG sets end-November 2026 deadline for Phase 2 of the National Single Window to cut export bottlenecks. Ports & Energy Logistics: NPA expects 26 vessels to arrive at Lagos ports by Sept 13, including aviation fuel and crude to support refinery supply needs. Markets: NGX ASI slips 0.03% on Wednesday as investors sell off some heavyweight stocks.

Military Recruitment: Nigeria’s Air Force opens 2026 enlistment for tradesmen/women and non-tradesmen/women, with free online registration from Sept 3 to Oct 14 via nafrecruitment.airforce.mil.ng. ECOWAS-AES Talks: ECOWAS Commission President Birame Diop urges deeper unity and engagement with the Alliance of Sahel States, citing shared borders and security threats. Security Spillover: A retired Nigerian diplomat warns Niger’s mutiny could expose fractures in the Nigerien Armed Forces, with knock-on risks for Nigeria’s northern border and Lake Chad corridor. Energy & Power: Kenpetrus unveils ultrasonic transparent meters under the MAP framework to help DisCos cut electricity theft and improve revenue assurance. Transport Costs: FG targets cheaper, cleaner mobility with a $2bn CNG push, citing 120,000 CNG-converted vehicles and plans for more stations. Economy & Markets: Nigeria’s Q2 GDP growth hits 4.43%, while NGX equities extend gains, adding about N1.22tn as investors stay bullish. Education Ranking: FG moves to build a national tertiary ranking system covering universities, polytechnics and colleges of education, with participation mandatory. Health: Alimosho General Hospital launches a ₦250m drive for new medical equipment and expanded specialist services. Crime & Justice: US extradites two Nigerians to face sextortion charges tied to teen deaths. Politics Ahead 2027: Opposition parties at the G100 Summit begin talks on a common platform, but the presidential flag issue remains unresolved.

GDP Growth & $1tn Goal: Nigeria’s economy grew 4.43% in Q2 2026, with manufacturing, agriculture and services expanding, strengthening the Finance Ministry’s push for a $1tn economy by 2030. Education Costs: JAMB and WAEC set a one-time WASSCE/O’Level result verification fee of ₦4,000 via a JAMB platform, stopping extra charges by tertiary institutions. Anti-Corruption & Policing Tech: EFCC dismissed 40+ staff for corruption and misconduct, while the police launched a Vigilant App to help citizens report fraud and track cases. Politics & NELFUND: Atiku pledged to review NELFUND and offer debt forgiveness for eligible students, while also attacking fuel-price affordability and cost-of-living pressures. Energy & Power: Nigeria and the UAE discussed boosting power generation by about 5,000MW, with solar highlighted; meanwhile, electricity subsidy hit ₦1.92tn in 2025. Markets & Finance: NGX extended gains as investors returned; Moody’s upgraded Nigeria’s outlook to positive. Security & Economy: Nigeria’s anti-graft push and security operations continue alongside reports of kidnappings and bandit attacks, keeping investor confidence in focus. Trade & Investment: ACCI unveiled AgroMeqa Expo 2026 to drive mechanisation and private capital into agro-exports. Digital Infrastructure: WIOCC secured $300m to expand Africa’s open-access digital infrastructure.

EFCC Crackdown: EFCC says it now freezes suspicious funds within 72 hours by monitoring unusual transactions, citing alleged diversion into crypto wallets, while also reporting ₦1.23tn recovered and 10,872 convictions in 34 months. Anti-Corruption Spotlight: EFCC declares ex-Bayelsa governor Timipre Sylva wanted over alleged $14.86m fraud and orders him to make himself available for questioning as he resigns from APC. Macro & Markets: Nigeria’s GDP grows 4.43% in Q2 2026, Tinubu calls it proof reforms are working; NGX extends gains with N1.91tn market value added and the naira firms at N1,332.94/$1. Diaspora & FX: CBN pegs July remittances at $947m, nearing the $1bn monthly target. Jobs & Trade: FG launches “Hire from Nigeria” to link local talent with global employers and push export-linked jobs. Transport & Infrastructure: FG plans a Lagos–Maiduguri high-speed rail corridor (up to 360km/h) and expands rail projects. Telecom & Business: Abia and MTN hit 77% voice/data coverage; Meta plans to charge businesses N14 per WhatsApp message from October. Energy & Policy: NUPRC keeps the $300 helicopter levy for upstream operations and clarifies TNC rules.

NFF Governance Crisis: Nigeria Football Federation’s fact-finding report alleges pay-to-play and interference in team selection and coach appointments, with claims that some board members and management get payments while players suffer. Economic Growth Watch: NBS says Nigeria’s real GDP grew 4.43% in Q2 2026, driven by agriculture and services, even as industrial growth slowed. Anti-Corruption Push: EFCC says it recovered ₦1.233tn and $684.48m in 34 months under Ola Olukoyede, securing 10,872 convictions. Fuel, Inflation and Policy Pressure: Experts urge more crude supply to local refineries and stronger farm support to tame inflation; meanwhile, cocoa prices rise on West African quality concerns and tomato prices crash in Bauchi after supply improves. Transport and Trade Moves: FG highlights rail and port projects to cut road accidents; NPA expects 26 vessels at Lagos ports; Dangote’s refinery expansion is set to boost shipping activity. Digital Finance and Payments: Paystack’s acquisition of Allawee surfaced via shutdown notices, while SEC says Nigeria’s T+1 settlement is on smooth course; global payments research flags cross-border flows surging to $320tn by 2032. Security and Governance: Tinubu urges community-based security for North Central and reaffirms open-grazing exit; EFCC and political critics trade barbs over leadership travel and hardship allowances. Housing Strain: Cross River lawmakers urge landlords to moderate rents as tenants face sharp hikes. Business Climate: FG launches “Hire From Nigeria” to market local skills globally; Afreximbank appoints senior executives to deepen regional operations.

Foreign Aid Bill Pushback: Human Rights Watch warns Nigeria’s proposed Foreign Aid (Regulation, Transparency and Disclosure) law could weaken civil society independence by giving authorities undue control over funding and activities. Energy Deal: ePointZero (2PointZero Group) moves to buy 90% of Azura Power Holding, expanding gas-backed power assets across Nigeria, Senegal and Mozambique. Governance & Payroll: Tinubu orders a forensic audit of IPPIS and related systems after fake agencies and ghost workers claims, spotlighting deeper public-sector governance gaps. Banking & Liquidity: CBN mops up N4.72tn via OMO auctions as banks hold large liquidity buffers; Access Holdings’ board approves audited H1 2026 financials pending CBN clearance. Remittances: CBN says diaspora inflows hit a record $947m in July, nearing the $1bn monthly target. Fuel & Cost of Living: Petrol edges toward N1,400/litre as Dangote raises gantry prices; CPPE warns rising imports could crowd out domestic refining. Competition Watch: FCCPC probes cement makers over price disparities as 50kg bags top ₦15,000 in some areas. Maritime Revenue: Marine ministry says agencies generated N1.83tn in 2025, up 160%, as it pushes shipping revival. Security & Trade: NRC and NSCDC stop railway vandalism in Osun, recovering nine oxygen cylinders. Local Markets: Onitsha market leaders deny police raid and N50m goods seizure claims. Sports Governance: NBBF board members dispute resignation reports and accuse leadership of seeking tenure extension. Tech/Payments: OPay debunks a viral claim it will stop operations from Sept 1.

Fuel Subsidy Politics: APC chair Nentawe Yilwatda warns Atiku’s plan to restore fuel subsidy could cancel students’ loans and bring back fuel queues, arguing it would reverse gains from reforms. Petrol Market Control: Dangote Refinery says it may restrict PMS sales to major marketers still importing petrol, citing fears of blending and quality issues. Foreign Aid Bill Fight: SERAP and the Nigerian Guild of Editors threaten legal action to stop the Foreign Aids (Regulation, Transparency and Disclosure) Bill, saying it could curb civic space and media freedom. Diaspora Inflows: CBN reports July remittances hit $947m via formal channels, the highest monthly figure, nearing the $1bn target. FX/Reserves: Reports say the naira strengthened to about N1,337/$ as reserves rose to around $53.3bn. Capital Markets: NGX expects more foreign interest as Nigeria regains FTSE Russell Frontier Market status effective Sept 21, 2026. Business Climate/Policy: FG sets Sept 11 deadline for public proposals to Finance Bill 2027, seeking fiscal transparency and better business conditions. Security & Trade Disruption: Firefighters battled a four-hour inferno at Abuja’s Jabi building materials market; NSCDC Mining Marshals defend the 13-month closure of Abuja quarry as an active court case. Regional Diplomacy: Tinubu asks the AU to act on xenophobic attacks in South Africa, pushing for an agenda slot at the January 2027 AU summit.