AGP Executive Report

Kidnapping Economy: SBM Intelligence reports 7,825 Nigerians abducted in 1,713 kidnappings between July 2025 and June 2026, with 1,142 killed and ₦7.78bn paid in ransom—Boko Haram’s JAS faction reportedly took about 90% of the money from eight incidents, raising fears that ransom fuels more violence. Power Sector Costing: NERC says electricity isn’t a “free right” and must be paid for to sustain investment, comparing it to petrol and citing high generation and transmission costs. Lagos Power Boost: Elektron Energy says its 40MW embedded plant for Victoria Island is near completion, aiming to cut diesel generator dependence for businesses. Fuel Price Tensions: NLC and CSOs accuse FG and marketers of exploiting Nigerians amid petrol hikes, while families report cutting meals as food inflation rises. Sports Governance Shake-up: Nigeria’s football leadership resigns as NFF president Ibrahim Gusau steps down, leaving a leadership vacuum amid governance concerns. Finance & Markets: Nigeria’s foreign reserves hit $53.11bn, highest in nearly 18 years, and equities rebound after FTSE Russell confirms Frontier Market status. Fintech Listing Watch: OPay eyes NGX listing as it also weighs a potential $4bn US IPO. Transport Cost Plan: Tinubu and governors target lower transport fares from Oct. 1 by scaling CNG and electric vehicles.

Aviation & Mobility: FAAN has cleared Bolt to resume e-hailing services at FAAN-managed airports immediately after passenger complaints, saying it reached an “agreeable operational framework” following engagements and apologised for the disruption. Fraud Watch: FAAN also warned Nigerians against a fake “provisional offer of employment” letter, saying it is not running any recruitment and urged people not to pay or share personal details. Security & Safety: A Nigerian Army escort vehicle crashed into traders and bystanders at Peva Market in Taraba, killing seven, while an Abia patrol truck crash injured soldiers amid heavy rain. Insecurity Data: SBM Intelligence reports Zamfara accounted for 16.74% of Nigeria’s kidnapping incidents and 24.55% of victims in one year, despite only four anti-kidnap operations. Cost of Living & Housing: Lagos house rents are surging, with Citizens Action Network calling it exploitative as a two-bedroom reportedly hits ₦2.5m yearly despite the ₦70,000 minimum wage. Social Protection: Tinubu’s government says it has disbursed over ₦600bn cash transfers to about nine million households in three tranches, while Oluremi Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Initiative gave ₦819m to 1,638 widows of fallen heroes. Education & Jobs: FG launched a ₦365m National Laureate Prize for top tertiary students and researchers, and Kaduna’s governor approved ₦810m to support 4,050 vocational graduates with tools and seed capital. Business & Markets: Meta begins charging Kenyan firms for WhatsApp customer-service messages from Oct 1, while Nigeria’s NIBSS launched NIBSS Digest to discuss the future of payments. Energy & Industry: NLNG urged Tinubu to tackle multiple taxes and regulatory charges, and the FG set up a technical committee to cut fish imports by boosting domestic production.

Petrol Pricing Debate: Accord Party’s Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim says Nigerians won’t pay above ₦610/litre under his presidency, targeting ₦605 as a sustainable starting price and arguing costs could fall to ₦200–₦300 if production and the exchange rate align. Anti-Corruption & Asset Recovery: EFCC chair Ola Olukoyede says the agency has secured forfeiture of over $500m in cash and assets for the Federal Government in three years, and is offering whistleblowers up to 5% rewards for tips on stolen assets abroad. Social Protection Push: FG unveiled the N140bn HOPE-SP programme to move vulnerable households from palliatives to empowerment and self-reliance, alongside new humanitarian response initiatives. Education Reform: Government scrapped new overseas scholarships under its Bilateral Education Agreement, and also announced a N365m annual National Laureate Prize to reward university research with commercial and national development value. Electricity for Health: REA launched RAMCO to manage renewable energy assets, with FG targeting reliable power for 30% of health facilities by 2027. Trade & Markets: NGX equities extended losses, down 0.17% midweek, while Nigeria and Türkiye deepened defence ties and Nigeria–Thailand pledged deeper cooperation in agriculture, ICT and renewable energy.

Petrol Price Politics: Accord Party’s Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim says petrol should start at ₦605/litre under his watch, cap at ₦610, and could drop to ₦200 if Nigeria fixes production and exchange-rate costs—while the Presidency counters that Atiku’s subsidy stance is inconsistent and “confused.” Anti-Graft Push: EFCC chair Ola Olukoyede says the commission has forfeited cash and assets worth over $500m to the federal government in three years, including an aircraft linked to a reported $30m power-project bribe, and offers whistleblowers up to 5% for tips on stolen assets abroad. Markets: Nigeria’s equities market extended its bearish run, shedding about N260bn as sell-offs hit major stocks. Social Protection: FG launched the $1bn HOPE-SP social protection programme to move vulnerable Nigerians from palliatives to self-reliance. Football Governance: NFF probe into Super Falcons’ WAFCON collapse points to camp-management, administrative and governance failures, including allegations of cash-for-players and board interference. Sports Business: NPFL lands Euromatch as first European title sponsor in a $7.5m, three-year deal. Tech & Trade: Nigeria and Thailand pledge deeper ties beyond oil and rice, including ICT, agriculture and renewable energy. Education Labour: ASUU begins indefinite strike at 20+ state universities over unpaid arrears.

Fuel Subsidy Showdown: Atiku Abubakar doubled down on restoring targeted fuel subsidy for 2027, but the debate is getting messier as IPMAN and PETROAN reject any return, arguing Nigeria must revive refineries and pipelines instead. Petrol Price Watch: Fresh pump-price moves followed the subsidy row—NNPCL lifted PMS to about ₦1,270/litre in Abuja while Dangote raised its gantry price to ₦1,200/litre. Regulatory/Telecom: MTN secured FCCPC approval to complete its IHS Towers takeover, with a condition to sell down up to 30% to local investors. Markets & Rates: CBN reopened access to OMO bills for more investors, with yields clearing above 20%, while the naira stayed near ₦1,347/$ in the official market and about ₦1,400/$ on the street. Investment & Growth: Ventures Platform raised a second $83m Africa fund to back early-stage founders across fintech, healthcare and SaaS, with AI central to its thesis. Security & Trade: Nigeria’s Navy intercepted 500 litres of suspected illegal AGO and cannabis in Lagos, as NIS urged border communities to partner in securing frontiers. Non-oil Exports: Zenith Bank’s trade seminar pushed value addition for non-oil exports, citing growth to $6.1bn in 2025. Politics & Credibility: Peter Obi urged candidates to campaign in person and defend credentials, while the subsidy controversy continues to dominate election messaging.

Telecom Cashflow: MTN Group says Nigeria and Ghana are driving its cash generation, with the two markets contributing R9.3bn to the group in H1 2026 (Ghana R6.6bn, Nigeria R2.7bn), as earnings and EBITDA margin improve. Petrol Subsidy Politics: Atiku Abubakar clarifies his fuel plan is not a return to import-subsidy, saying it’s a targeted, capped, audited support tied to domestic refining and production; the clarification follows an aide’s “restore and remove later” comment. NNPCL Pricing: NNPCL raises petrol price in Abuja from ₦1,250 to ₦1,270 per litre, while some private stations reportedly sell below or above the new rate. Security & Crime Finance: NFIU warns terrorist financiers are using pre-registered SIMs, SIMs linked to deceased persons and women’s accounts, plus proxy bank accounts, to hide control of illicit funds. Navy Intercepts: Nigerian Navy seizes 500 litres of suspected illicit AGO and cannabis in Lekki, Lagos, during operations against illegal petroleum storage and drug trafficking. Roads & Cost of Living: MonITNG calls Benin–Agbor Bypass and Benin–Sapele–Warri Road a “death trap,” saying the bad state is hurting trade and exposing travellers to security risks. Education-to-Industry: Education Minister pushes NASENI to link university research to patents, investors and commercialisation via the NASENI Campus platform. Eid-el-Maulud Message: Tinubu urges Muslims to translate Prophet Muhammad’s virtues into civic action, while praying for peace and economic relief. Markets: Nigeria’s equities extend losses, with NGX shedding about N137bn in the latest session as selling pressure hits banking and insurance stocks.

FX Watch: The naira slipped 0.04% at the official market to close at ₦1,346.98/$1, while the pound weakened to ₦1,837.54/£1; analysts expect relative stability as CBN refines policy. Deepwater Investment: NNPC and OML 118 partners signed addenda to push Bonga South-West/Aparo toward Final Investment Decision, targeting $15bn–$21bn investment. Security & Finance: NFIU says terrorists are exploiting crowdfunding and accounts linked to deceased persons, using women’s names and unregistered SIMs to move funds. Fuel Subsidy Politics: At NBA Port Harcourt, Peter Obi backed subsidy removal but blamed mismanagement of savings; Atiku’s proposed return of subsidy sparked sharp opposition among candidates. Oil Market Shift: Nigeria’s domestic petrol supply fell 21% in July as imports rose, even as Dangote refinery output declined. Capital Markets: NGX extended losses, shedding about ₦137bn as selling pressure hit banking and insurance stocks. Youth Jobs: ILO and FG urged an actionable youth employment plan to tackle skills gaps and informality. Energy Costs: Cooking gas prices varied widely, with Sokoto topping at about ₦1,575/kg as stock cover tightened. Trade: China’s zero-tariff policy lifted Nigerian exports, with Chinese imports from Nigeria up 81% to $2.25bn in H1 2026.

Edo Politics: Edo Assembly rejected ex-Speaker Blessing Agbebaku’s “resignation” and converted it to impeachment, while also passing bills for financial autonomy and judiciary independence. Roads & Economy: Peter Obi renewed calls to prioritise repairing existing roads after an Onitsha–Lagos trip stretched to nearly two days; Tinubu also flagged off the N295.9bn Ibadan–Ijebu Ode road dualisation. Capital Markets & Finance: SEC-approved AFC Capital Partners’ $150m Infrastructure Climate-Resilient Fund aims to pull in pension, insurance and sovereign capital for green infrastructure. Telecoms: NCC and FCCPC approved MTN’s $2.2bn IHS Towers takeover, moving MTN to full ownership. Social Protection: FG set to unveil a $1bn Renewed Hope Social Protection programme on Wednesday. Business Climate: FCCPC probes cement price manipulation as 50kg bags hit N12,000–N15,000. Security & Crime: NDLEA arrested a 101-year-old alleged cannabis seller; EFCC probed a $12,000 fraud case in Enugu. Entrepreneurship: MTN Foundation and UN Women partner to empower 200 rural women entrepreneurs in Kano and Cross River. Markets: NGX equities extended losses as profit-taking dragged the All-Share Index down 0.11%.

Telecom Earnings: MTN Group reported strong H1 2026 growth, with EBITDA up 24.4% and margin expansion, though headline EPS fell on impairment and FX losses. Macroeconomy & Welfare: CPPE says macro stability hasn’t yet translated into better household welfare, urging deeper reforms that cut structural costs and boost productivity. Clean Cooking Rollout: FG flags off 27,000 LPG cylinders in Uyo under the National Grassroots LPG Penetration Programme, targeting 5m households by 2030. Fuel Pricing Debate: A West African pricing framework is gaining traction as stakeholders argue Dangote Refinery can shift the region from “price taker” to “price maker” dynamics. Capital Markets: Nigeria’s equities market shed about N2.099tn WoW as bearish sentiment persisted, with NGX All-Share down 1.35%. Banking & ESG: FirstBank screened 505 corporate transactions worth over N10tn for ESG risks in 2025, more than double the prior year. Crypto Regulation: Binance restricted 17 crypto platforms globally, including three Nigerian-linked entities, warning users to stop transactions after effective dates. Security & People: DSS rescued a kidnapped man in Imo and police in Kaduna rescued 75 abducted travellers. Housing Inputs: Cement prices draw fresh anger as experts peg a fair factory-gate price far below current consumer rates.

Energy & Markets: Dangote’s fortune jumped by over $5bn as the Iran war boosts demand for refined products, with his Lagos refinery reportedly hitting full capacity and expanding exports. Regional Trade: Dangote also offered East African states a 30% stake in a planned $20bn Kenya refinery in Lamu, aiming to cut regional dependence on imported fuel. Monetary Policy & Crypto: Central bankers warn that dollar-pegged stablecoins could erode monetary sovereignty, saying CBDCs won’t fully stop the “digital dollarization” risk. Inflation & Cost of Living: Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 15.43% in July, but food inflation rose sharply, deepening household pressure. Politics, Debt & Transparency: Atiku renewed calls for full disclosure of the $5bn Abu Dhabi loan and criticised rising debt, while SERAP urged INEC to publish political donation limits and enforce campaign finance rules. Governance & Fraud: ICPC’s “fake agency” probe widens as a coordinator defends the Made-in-Nigeria office with documents, while Tinubu ordered arrests and suspended top officials. Security: Police rescued 75 kidnapped travellers in Kaduna; NDLEA arrested a 101-year-old woman over alleged cannabis dealing and seized illicit drugs worth N4.4bn. Labour & Energy Sector: PENGASSAN elected Bosun Olabiyi-Agoro as new national president, promising job protection and a “just transition.” Infrastructure: FEC approved funding to complete and furnish the long-stalled National Library project in Abuja.

Fuel Subsidy Debate: Donald Duke and Atiku’s camps keep trading blows over subsidy reform and what it really means for Nigerians’ cost of living, with fresh arguments on where the “subsidy money” came from and whether reforms truly eased hardship. FX & Markets: The naira gained about N11 week-on-week at the official market, while equities extended losses as investors reacted to CBN’s revised OMO framework, shrinking NGX market value by about N2.1tn in the week. Politics 2027: Tinubu’s APC unveiled its presidential campaign council, naming Dapo Abiodun for fundraising and Abdulaziz Yari as DG, as opposition groups reject calls for a single candidate and keep pushing for issue-based campaigns. Aviation & Digital Economy: FG and NIGCOMSAT move to procure two next-gen communication satellites after FEC approval, while LCCI urges stronger local pharma manufacturing to cut dependence on imports. Oil & Gas Labour: PENGASSAN elected Bosun Olabiyi-Agoro as national president, pledging a “just transition” for workers amid restructuring and energy transition pressures. Governance & Integrity: ICPC-linked “fake agency” allegations deepen as George Nwabueze denies running a fictitious office, insisting it has existed under OSGF supervision for 16 years. Infrastructure & Safety: Reports highlight the worsening Apata-Omi Adio-Abeokuta highway and fresh flooding damage in Abuja’s highbrow areas, alongside market fire losses in Ibadan. Health & Consumer Protection: May & Baker’s boss links local drug manufacturing to tackling counterfeits, while FCCPC’s cement price probe targets suspected manipulation. Elections & Civic Vigilance: Rights groups urge Nigerians to protect votes, reject intimidation and vote-buying, and learn from Osun’s election lessons for 2027.

Fuel Subsidy & 2027 Politics: Donald Duke says Tinubu’s fuel subsidy removal enriched government while worsening hardship, as Atiku and ADC allies renew calls to restore subsidy and challenge the “danger to lives” argument in the FBI’s withholding of Tinubu records. Campaign Council Scrutiny: APC’s 2027 campaign council names Betta Edu and Ngozi Olejeme despite past corruption allegations, drawing ADC criticism and renewed debate on accountability. Oil & Gas Security: Nigerian Navy disrupted illegal refining sites in Rivers, recovering about 91,000 litres of suspected stolen crude and arresting operators’ infrastructure. Insurance Market: PSAN urges NAICOM to extend recapitalisation deadlines for insurers yet to meet requirements; NAICOM also reaffirms plans to unlock Takaful for deeper penetration. Capital Markets: NGX trading sentiment stays mixed as insurance equities drive activity while turnover declines; recapitalisation and market “dollar test” narratives keep investors cautious. Digital/Consumer Protection: US DOJ secures a $400m TikTok settlement over children’s privacy breaches; locally, Blord’s TikTok impersonator is arrested and charged in Anambra court. Connectivity & Tech: FG approves two next-gen satellites (NIGCOMSAT-2A/2B) to cut reliance on foreign infrastructure. Trade & Business Links: Turkey reports rising exports to Nigeria, up 52.1% in seven months, signalling growing trade ties. Public Health: Expert warns insecticide resistance and climate change are threatening mosquito-borne disease control gains.

Oil & Gas Awards: OGTAN HCD excellence awards honoured NCDMB’s Felix Ogbe, NUPRC’s Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, Renaissance Africa’s Ofure Chizi and Chevron Nigeria at the OGTAN HCD Conference in Effurun, with calls to put human capital at the centre of Nigeria’s gas push. Energy & Regulation: Chevron’s Jim Swartz urged a predictable, transparent regulatory framework to unlock investment and jobs, while NMDPRA flagged possible up to 5% revenue fines for anti-competitive midstream/downstream operators. Markets & FX: The naira closed the week stronger at about N1,346/$ on official markets as weekly FX turnover jumped to $4.52bn; NGX also stayed under pressure with another sell-off. Equities: NGX shed about N444bn as Customs Street fell 0.29%, extending the bearish run. Politics & Economy: Fuel subsidy debate deepened as Ben Murray-Bruce rejected a return, urging state-funded transport; Tinubu also mocked Osun’s “Half Salary” claim. Security: DHQ said troops rescued 51 kidnapped victims and neutralised scores of criminals in one week. Consumer Tech: DStv/GOtv subscribers reported activation delays after payments, disrupting viewing as the Premier League returned. Business & Credit: Foremost Capital secured an investment-grade BBB+ rating from DataPro. Osun Governance: EFCC lifted its post-no-debit restriction on Osun government accounts after Tinubu’s order, following an investigation into ecology/intervention funds.

NGX Market Mood: Nigeria’s stock market slid again, with investors losing about N444bn as the All-Share Index fell 0.29% to 239,351 and market cap dropped to N154.53tn, driven by extended profit-taking in energy and banking stocks. Fuel Subsidy Politics: Fuel subsidy remains the hottest economic campaign issue as Atiku hit back at Tinubu, arguing subsidy removal triggered fuel-price, FX and cost-of-living shocks, while Tinubu called Atiku’s plan “economic ignorance.” Elections & Security: The IRI warned that insecurity and election-related political violence are the biggest threats to 2027 polls, while a cyber expert cautioned against using Android 10-powered BVAS devices. Power & Bonds: Geregu Power confirmed it has cleared its defaulted N40.09bn bond obligations, paying bondholders after a missed coupon payment. Campaign Trail: Peter Obi officially kicked off his 2027 campaign, pushing a production-led economy and urging candidates to defend records. Health & Human Capital: NACA/WHO raised alarm over about 45,000 new HIV infections, urging prevention tools and testing. Education Tech Push: Secondary school principals demanded overhaul of digital infrastructure and better teacher welfare to make Nigeria’s digital education work. Industrial Revival: FG signed an agreement to revive Delta Steel with $1.3bn investment, targeting full operations within 18–24 months.

Oil & Gas Recovery: NUPRC data shows Nigeria’s crude and condensate output rose to about 1.735mbpd in June for a fourth straight month as pipeline losses fall and security improves in the Niger Delta. Halal Export Push: VP Shettima says Nigeria, despite being the world’s 7th-largest Halal economy, has under 1% global share, urging stronger certification, financing and export links to the Gulf. Macroeconomic Outlook: PwC Strategy& forecasts 4.2% GDP growth in 2026, but warns recovery is concentrated in a few sectors. Customs Revenue Surge: Apapa Customs hits a record N28.1bn in 24 hours, citing better compliance, trade facilitation and digital processes. Subsidy Accountability: NECA wants states and LGs to account for N10.4trn subsidy savings shared from petrol removal. Digital Infrastructure: FG says 90,000km fibre rollout starts in October under Project BRIDGE. Airport E-hailing Fallout: FAAN restrictions on Uber/Bolt at airports spark higher fares and ride scarcity. Security & Economy: Mining marshals plan tougher action against illegal mining cartels funding crime. Education & Skills: TETFund to unlock North Central’s growth with ₦2.53bn per university and related allocations. Tech for Students: Google offers eligible Nigerian students free 12-month Gemini/AI Plus access worth N92,400. Politics & Fuel Subsidy Row: Tinubu and Atiku trade blows over plans to return or not return petrol subsidy.

Fuel Subsidy Showdown: Atiku Abubakar says he’ll restore petrol subsidy in 2027, but with a new “production subsidy” model that caps spending, tracks every subsidised barrel and ties benefits to domestic refineries—while the Presidency calls it deceptive and warns it could derail recovery. Market & Finance: Nigeria’s stock market extended losses for a second day, shedding about N440bn as investors took profit in banks, consumer goods and oil & gas; UBA also appointed Ibrahim Puri as non-executive director pending CBN approval. Energy & Power: FG commissioned upgraded Lagos substations adding 272MW to the grid, while NISO and NBET pushed for better electricity market liquidity to attract investors. Consumer Pressure: Lagos/Ogun residents say cooking gas retail prices remain far above depot rates despite recent cuts, urging regulators to act. Security & Humanitarian: 83 Nigerians returned from South Africa after xenophobic attacks; in Onitsha, a lawyer demands prosecution over alleged police shooting of unarmed traders. Digital & Education: EU pledged €820m for Nigeria’s digital ecosystem via innovation hub standards, and Google offers eligible Nigerian students 12 months of free Google AI Plus.